Starting 5 NBA Props: 1/25/23

Welcome to Starting 5, a series where I take a well-researched and analytical approach to sports gambling and give my top five player props for different matchups across the NBA. Results are tracked and updated within every post so you can follow along and decide for yourself if I’m as smart as I think I am.

Recap: 1/24/23

• Tyler Herro Over 28.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (MISS)
• Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 Assists (HIT)
• Quentin Grimes Over 1.5 Three’s Made (HIT)
• Nikola Vucevic Over 12.5 Rebounds (MISS)
• Spencer Dinwiddie Over 18.5 Points (HIT)

Updated Record: 19–11

With some huge second halves from Dinwiddie and Grimes, we managed to get our third consecutive night of going 3–2, with some disappointing finishes from Nikola Vucevic, who had eight rebounds at halftime but failed to clear the over, and Tyler Herro, who really didn’t have much of an impact at all last night.

Photo Courtesy: The Athletic

Draymond Green Over 7.5 Rebounds vs. Memphis Grizzlies

• Draymond Green’s rebounding numbers have been streaky throughout the season but he has found some consistency as of late, averaging 9.6 rebounds over his last 10 games while recording 11 or more in six of them. In their previous matchup against the Grizzlies, which came on Christmas Day, Green had 13 rebounds, and is averaging 9.2 boards over his last 10 games against the Grizzlies in his career.

D’Angelo Russell Over 2.5 Three’s Made vs. New Orleans Pelicans

• This game is much more about riding the hot hand than anything else. The Pelicans rank in the upper-half of the NBA in perimeter defending and shooting guard defense, but D-Lo has been shooting too consistently for me to not take this bet at this total.
• He’s been shooting at 51% from beyond the arc over his last five games and is averaging seven attempts per-game. With the point spread being set at -3 in favor of the Pelicans, I expect that this will be a close game and that he’ll be seeing a ton of minutes and opportunities to score again tonight.

LeBron James Over 44.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists vs. Sacramento Kings

• This is going to be the first time I’ve taken LeBron as a pick for this series, and I feel like we’re taking him at the perfect time.

• LeBron has cleared this total in eight of his last 10 games and has done so in two of his last three games against the Sacramento Kings. Despite the fact that the Lakers are coming into the second game of a back-to-back, LeBron has actually managed to hit this over in three of the four games he’s played while having no days of rest, with one of those games being against the Kings.

Dejounte Murray Over 25.5 Points and Rebounds vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

• Even with Trae Young returning back to the lineup for the Atlanta Hawks, Dejounte Murray has still managed to be a huge part of their gameplan. He’s cleared this combined total in eight of his last 10 games and hasn’t seen any decline in playing time, averaging 36.4 minutes per-game over their last five.
• Considering that Murray has only scored over 20 points in five of his last 10 games, I’m taking the insurance of his rebounds with this pick as the Thunder rank 30th in the NBA in rebounds allowed.

Photo Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Paolo Banchero Over 19.5 Points vs. Indiana Pacers

• I can see this game being a huge spot for Banchero to fill up the stat sheet coming off a tough matchup against the Boston Celtics where he still managed to put up 23 points. Banchero has cleared this total in eight of his last 10 games and is coming up against a Pacers team that ranks 27th in power forward defense and 24th in points allowed.
• Another bet to tease for Banchero in this game could be the over on his 1.5 three’s made, with him clearing this in eight of his last 10 and the Pacers ranking 29th in three-point percentage allowed.