Starting 5 NBA Props: 1/9/23

Welcome to Starting 5, a series where I take a well-researched and analytical approach to sports gambling and give my top five player props for different matchups across the NBA. Results are tracked and updated within every post so you can follow along and decide for yourself if I’m as smart as I think I am.

Recap: 1/6/2023

LaMelo Ball Over 36.5 Points Rebounds and Assists (-111) HIT

Julius Randle Over 39.5 Points and Rebounds (-118) HIT

Tobias Harris Over 24.5 Points and Rebounds (-111) HIT

Jalen Williams Over 19.5 Points Rebounds and Assists (-111) HIT

Bam Adebayo Over 21.5 Points (-128) MISS

Updated Record: 4–1

Overall a very solid start to 2023 with the exception of a bad beat from Bam Adebayo in Miami’s win against Phoenix. Bam entered the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter with 21 points and still managed to miss this total.

Photo Courtesy: Associated Press

Julius Randle Under 41.5 Points Rebounds and Assists vs. Milwaukee Bucks

• This won’t be a very popular pick considering Julius Randle’s exceptional play as of late, but this total seems just slightly inflated. Before these last 10 games Randle only hit this over in seven of his 30 appearances, and has only hit it once against Milwaukee in six games over the past two seasons.
• With the Bucks defense being as good as it is, and with Randle having to match up against both Giannis Antetekounmpo, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez all night, it’s going to be tough for him to replicate the production that he’s been having over the past month.

Jrue Holiday Over 1.5 Three’s Made vs. New York Knicks

• In a game that will be focused heavily on the play between the front court of both teams, I think Jrue Holiday’s performance from beyond the arc is flying heavily under the radar of the sportsbooks. He’s hit this over in nine of his last 10 games and has had two or more three-pointers in 68% of his games this season, including both of the games they’ve already played against the Knicks.
• With R.J. Barrett being listed as doubtful heading into this game, Holiday shouldn’t have a problem getting opportunities to shoot either. He’s averaging 5.2 attempts against New York this season, and the Knicks have allowed two or more three-pointers from 15 of the 18 guards they’ve faced over their last seven games.

Photo Courtesy: Kevin Jairaj, USA Today Sports

Kevin Huerter Over 2.5 Three’s Made vs. Orlando Magic

• While Kevin Huerter’s shooting has cooled off in comparison to the opening 15 games of the season, he’s managed to find some consistency over the past two weeks. He’s hit three or more three-pointers in seven of his last 10 games, and has averaged 7.2 attempts in that span. Huerter has also cleared this total in his last two games against the Magic.
• This is a great matchup for Huerter as the Magic have one of the worst three-point defenses in the league, ranking 25th in three’s allowed, while also ranking 27th in shooting guard defense this season.

Nikola Vucevic Over 30.5 Points Rebounds and Assists vs. Boston Celtics

• Vucevic’s rebounding impact over the last five games for the Chicago Bulls has been extremely impressive, averaging just under 15 boards while also putting up 16 points and four assists in that span. He’s cleared the 30.5 combined total in six of his last seven games while also hitting the over in six of eight contests against the Celtics while being a member of the Bulls.
• You may feel comfortable just taking his rebound total (10.5, -150 odds) considering that the Celtics rank 22nd in rebounds allowed, but with the way that Boston has struggled defending the center and forward position this season, I think taking the insurance of his points and assists while also getting better odds (-105), is the smarter play.

Wendell Carter Jr. Over 14.5 Points vs. Sacramento Kings

• This seems like a great matchup for Wendell Carter Jr. as the Sacramento Kings are coming off of a game in which they gave up 29 points to Thomas Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers. Despite Carter Jr.’s inconsistencies on hitting this over throughout his last 10 games, scoring 15 points in just six of his last 10 games, he managed to put up 17 points in both of his previous games against Sacramento.
• While they still rank 3rd in the NBA in center defense, four of the last six centers that the Kings have played against have hit their over on points.

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